RB · GB
Kaleb Johnson
Next: Week 10, MIN at GB, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 24.2 |
| Matchup | +1.6 |
| Weather | +0.6 |
| Coach / team | +0.7 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | +3.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 31.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% less than average, so his raw 22.6 counts as 24.2. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIN allows 7% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −51% in 2 without vs 15 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 17), he was 9% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −15% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect −0%. Lead running back: Josh Jacobs (Out, finger) not expected to play (league-wide +101% in 1074 games, scaled for his role: Josh Jacobs takes 53% of the team's carries (typical: 54%); his own games: −70% in 16 without vs 1 with; already the case in 15 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team +3% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. MIN defensive front: Blake Cashman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Blake Cashman: his team +13% in 4 games without him vs 21 with, 10.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.6)); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +8%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.3 |
| Matchup | −0.3 |
| Weather | +0.0 |
| Coach / team | −0.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 9% less than average, so his raw 1.2 counts as 1.3. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: MIN allows 20% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 15 with). Effect +3%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 2% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 17), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jordan Love 7.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect +2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −23% in 10 without vs 7 with). Effect +3%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team −15% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. MIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee); MIN secondary: Josh Metellus (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 20%, fair odds +402 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.19 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.18 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 15% less than average, so his raw 0.16 counts as 0.19. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIN allows 17% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 15 with). Effect +3%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 17), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect +2%. Lead running back: Josh Jacobs (Out, finger) not expected to play (league-wide +108% in 1074 games, scaled for his role: Josh Jacobs takes 53% of the team's carries (typical: 54%); his own games: −70% in 16 without vs 1 with; already the case in 15 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team +13% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +8%. MIN defensive front: Blake Cashman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Blake Cashman: his team +19% in 4 games without him vs 21 with, 10.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.6)); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +10%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NE | 0 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | DAL | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CHI | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | TB | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ATL | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NYJ | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 | MIA | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.