RB · CLE
Dylan Sampson
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 16.8 |
| Matchup | +0.2 |
| Weather | −0.6 |
| Coach / team | +0.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +3.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 20.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 17.6 counts as 16.8. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: HOU allows 1% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +29% in 5 without vs 14 with). Effect −3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 7% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 6% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 19), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −69% in 10 without vs 9 with). Effect +21%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: +150% in 3 without vs 16 with). Effect −13%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. HOU defensive front: Azeez Al-Shaair (Out, groin), Danielle Hunter (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Azeez Al-Shaair: his team +16% in 2 games without him vs 25 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8); Danielle Hunter: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +10%. Watch: HOU defensive front: Will Anderson (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 19.5 |
| Matchup | −3.0 |
| Weather | +1.6 |
| Coach / team | −2.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 18.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 19.7 counts as 19.5. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: HOU allows 15% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 5 without vs 14 with). Effect +10%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 22% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 19), he was 5% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Deshaun Watson 6.6 yards per attempt vs Shedeur Sanders 6.7, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −41% in 10 without vs 9 with). Effect +12%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 12 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −31% in 15 without vs 4 with). Effect +2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 9%, fair odds +1003 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.06 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.06 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% more than average, so his raw 0.06 counts as 0.06. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: HOU allows 7% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 5 without vs 14 with). Effect +9%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 1% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 19), he was 39% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −6% in 10 without vs 9 with). Effect +5%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 16 with). Effect −6%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. HOU defensive front: Azeez Al-Shaair (Out, groin), Danielle Hunter (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Azeez Al-Shaair: his team +75% in 2 games without him vs 25 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8); Danielle Hunter: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +17%. Watch: HOU defensive front: Will Anderson (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NO | 0 | 21 | 27 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | PIT | 0 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | TEN | 0 | 45 | 32 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | CIN | 0 | 32 | 12 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | PIT | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | TEN | 0 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | SF | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.