WR · SF
Jordan Watkins
Next: Week 10, SF at DAL, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 6 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 46.2 |
| Matchup | +2.4 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +8.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 60.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 6 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 48.0 counts as 46.2. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DAL allows 5% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 2 games in that window (of his last 6), he was 76% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 6 games (quarterback gap: Brock Purdy 8.0 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 4 with). Effect +13%. Top targets: Mike Evans (Out, achilles) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Mike Evans takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −2% in 4 without vs 2 with; already the case in 4 of his last 6 games). Effect +4%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 6 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. DAL secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 6 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 6 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 33%, fair odds +206 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.20 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.06 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.29 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 6 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 22% more than average, so his raw 0.24 counts as 0.20. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DAL allows 15% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 2 games in that window (of his last 6), he was 200% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 6 games (quarterback gap: Brock Purdy 5.6 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 4 with). Effect +19%. Top targets: Mike Evans (Out, achilles) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Mike Evans takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); already the case in 4 of his last 6 games). Effect +3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 6 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. DAL secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 6 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | LV | 0 | 0 | 86 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 60 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 9 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 8 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.