TE · LAC
Oronde Gadsden II
Next: Week 10, LAC at BAL, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 25.8 |
| Matchup | −0.7 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +1.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 28.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% less than average, so his raw 24.1 counts as 25.8. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: BAL allows 3% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 24), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Justin Herbert 7.3 yards per attempt vs DJ Uiagalelei 6.2, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −42% in 1 without vs 23 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −12% in 15 without vs 9 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. BAL secondary: Jaylinn Hawkins (Out, knee) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylinn Hawkins: his team +22% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, allows 8.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.2)); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 15%, fair odds +584 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.10 |
| Matchup | +0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.12 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 24% more than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.10. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BAL allows 21% more to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 60% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 24), he was 77% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Justin Herbert 4.3 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs DJ Uiagalelei 3.8, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 23 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +91% in 15 without vs 9 with). Effect −27%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. BAL secondary: Jaylinn Hawkins (Out, knee) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylinn Hawkins: his team +100% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, allows 8.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.2)); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +10%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LA | 0 | 0 | 52 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | KC | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | SEA | 0 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LV | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.