RB · MIA
Ollie Gordon II
Next: Week 10, MIA at IND, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 67.4 |
| Matchup | +8.1 |
| Weather | +1.7 |
| Coach / team | +4.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −3.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 78.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 65.4 counts as 67.4. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: IND allows 12% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 22 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 73% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 24), he was 7% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Malik Willis is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 21 with; already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −18%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team +23% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. IND defensive front: Akeem Davis-Gaither (Out, knee), DeForest Buckner (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akeem Davis-Gaither: his team +36% in 1 games without him vs 8 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.3); DeForest Buckner: his team +22% in 9 games without him vs 17 with, 4.1 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.3)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +22%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.6 |
| Matchup | +0.3 |
| Weather | +0.0 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.7 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 9% more than average, so his raw 1.8 counts as 1.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: IND allows 17% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −56% in 2 without vs 22 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 19% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 24), he was 47% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Malik Willis is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Malik Willis 7.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 21 with; already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −31%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 12 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −7% in 20 without vs 4 with). Effect −5%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team −10% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. IND secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 41%, fair odds +143 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.43 |
| Matchup | +0.06 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.12 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.40 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 0.42 counts as 0.43. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: IND allows 15% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 22 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 24), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Malik Willis is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 21 with; already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −30%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team +0% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. IND defensive front: Akeem Davis-Gaither (Out, knee), DeForest Buckner (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akeem Davis-Gaither: his team +9% in 1 games without him vs 8 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.3); DeForest Buckner: his team −3% in 9 games without him vs 17 with, 4.1 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.3)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +7%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DET | 0 | 55 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | NE | 0 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYJ | 0 | 103 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CIN | 0 | 88 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | MIN | 0 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | KC | 0 | 41 | 14 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | SF | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | NE | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.