RB · WAS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Not expected to play: on injured reserve
Next: Week 11, CIN at WAS, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 43.2 |
| Matchup | −1.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +2.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −4.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 37.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 43.8 counts as 43.2. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 3% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Blough's offense vs Golden's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 72 games since 2018, 7% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 27% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +17% in 12 without vs 10 with). Effect −6%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. CIN defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 4.9 |
| Matchup | +0.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 2.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 16% more than average, so his raw 5.7 counts as 4.9. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CIN allows 1% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Blough's offense vs Golden's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 72 games since 2018, 1% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 58% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jayden Daniels 7.2 yards per attempt vs Marcus Mariota 7.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +150% in 12 without vs 10 with). Effect −32%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 14 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −56% in 20 without vs 2 with). Effect +2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 29%, fair odds +244 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.35 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.33 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 0.38 counts as 0.35. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 9% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Blough's offense vs Golden's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 72 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −18% in 12 without vs 10 with). Effect +10%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. CIN defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 5 | NYG | 0 | 82 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | IND | 0 | 15 | 35 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | SEA | 0 | 36 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | DAL | 0 | 43 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | PHI | 0 | 63 | -7 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | PHI | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | DAL | 0 | 105 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 16 | PHI | 0 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.