RB · HOU
Woody Marks
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 51.7 |
| Matchup | +7.4 |
| Weather | −2.0 |
| Coach / team | −1.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −2.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 51.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 51.3 counts as 51.7. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CLE allows 14% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: +113% in 2 without vs 24 with). Effect −3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 4% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +23% in 4 without vs 22 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. CLE defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 11.7 |
| Matchup | −3.0 |
| Weather | +0.2 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 8.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 11.2 counts as 11.7. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CLE allows 26% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −66% in 2 without vs 24 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 11% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: C.J. Stroud 7.3 yards per attempt vs Davis Mills 6.0, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −65% in 4 without vs 22 with). Effect +2%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +84% in 5 without vs 21 with). Effect −11%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 23%, fair odds +343 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.28 |
| Matchup | −0.02 |
| Weather | −0.01 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.21 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% less than average, so his raw 0.25 counts as 0.28. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CLE allows 8% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +150% in 2 without vs 24 with). Effect −4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 6% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 18% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −12% in 4 without vs 22 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. CLE defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | LAC | 0 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYG | 0 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | JAX | 0 | 56 | 25 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | TEN | 0 | 62 | 23 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DAL | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | IND | 0 | 15 | 6 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CIN | 0 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | BUF | 0 | 42 | -2 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.