WR · GB
Matthew Golden
Next: Week 10, MIN at GB, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 94.6 |
| Matchup | −9.9 |
| Weather | +1.9 |
| Coach / team | −1.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −4.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +13.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 93.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 100.4 counts as 94.6. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: MIN allows 10% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −16% in 3 without vs 21 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −28% in 2 without vs 22 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 2% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 24), he was 12% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jordan Love 7.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 22 with). Effect +4%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −53% in 13 without vs 11 with). Effect +14%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team −15% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. MIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee); MIN secondary: Josh Metellus (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 53%, fair odds -113 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.53 |
| Matchup | −0.13 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.06 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.17 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.52 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 0.57 counts as 0.53. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIN allows 25% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 21 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +68% in 2 without vs 22 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Flores's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 24), he was 34% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jordan Love 5.5 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 22 with). Effect +6%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 13 without vs 11 with). Effect +22%. Offensive line: Sean Rhyan (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Sean Rhyan: his team +13% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect +9%. MIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: offensive line: Travis Glover (Questionable, knee); MIN secondary: Josh Metellus (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NE | 0 | 0 | 164 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 79 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | DET | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | DAL | 0 | 0 | 104 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 123 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | TB | 0 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 100 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 58 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.