WR · DET
Isaac TeSlaa
Next: Week 11, TB at DET, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 27.0 |
| Matchup | −0.8 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 27.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 26.3 counts as 27.0. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: TB allows 3% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 21), he was 14% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +0% in 8 without vs 13 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 12 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. TB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 8%, fair odds +1142 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.14 |
| Matchup | −0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.07 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.14. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: TB allows 8% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 16% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 21), he was 48% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 8 without vs 13 with). Effect −31%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 12 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. TB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | GB | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 95 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 66 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.