RB · NE
TreVeyon Henderson
Not expected to play: on injured reserve
Next: Week 12, NE at LAC, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 26.0 |
| Matchup | +2.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +1.6 |
| Rest / bye | +4.5 |
| Game time | −3.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 28.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 25.5 counts as 26.0. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: LAC allows 8% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 10% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 15% above in 5 games. This player: 81% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 27), he was 32% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team −25% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −6%. LAC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 8.4 |
| Matchup | −1.6 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | +0.1 |
| Game time | +0.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 7.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 8.7 counts as 8.4. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 19% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 5% below in 5 games. This player: 74% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 27), he was 25% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 16 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games). Effect −14%. Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team +11% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 18%, fair odds +451 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.19 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.22 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% less than average, so his raw 0.17 counts as 0.19. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 15% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 18% below in 5 games. This player: 119% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 27), he was 12% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team +33% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect +10%. LAC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 7 | CHI | 0 | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NYJ | 0 | 31 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | LV | 0 | 22 | 16 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BUF | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | JAX | 0 | 23 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PIT | 0 | 76 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 22 (playoffs) | SEA | 0 | 19 | 26 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 21 (playoffs) | DEN | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.