TE · NYJ
Mason Taylor
Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 27.6 |
| Matchup | +3.2 |
| Weather | −0.6 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −4.7 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 25.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 29.6 counts as 27.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BUF allows 12% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +77% in 2 without vs 17 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 19), he was 2% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Geno Smith 7.3 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +8% in 5 without vs 14 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 13 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +6% in 16 without vs 3 with). Effect −9%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −61% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Watch: Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Adonai Mitchell is listed Questionable, knee; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 9%, fair odds +1046 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.14 |
| Matchup | −0.06 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.11 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 39% more than average, so his raw 0.19 counts as 0.14. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BUF allows 43% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 17 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 19), he was 19% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Geno Smith 4.1 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 5 without vs 14 with). Effect +12%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 13 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 16 without vs 3 with). Effect +16%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −86% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Watch: Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Adonai Mitchell is listed Questionable, knee; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | KC | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LV | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 62 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NE | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | TEN | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.