QB · NO
Tyler Shough
Next: Week 10, CAR at NO, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 240.3 |
| Matchup | −7.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +10.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | +12.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 255.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 237.1 counts as 240.3. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: CAR allows 3% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 0% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 19), he was 8% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −10% in 5 without vs 14 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team −9% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team +11% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. CAR secondary: Akayleb Evans (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akayleb Evans: his team +4% in 15 games without him vs 11 with, allows 8.8 yards per target (unit starters: 8.5)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. Watch: CAR secondary: Will Lee (Questionable, hamstring).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Moderate vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 82%, fair odds -441 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.41 |
| Matchup | −0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.12 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.14 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.37 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 1.49 counts as 1.41. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CAR allows 0% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 1% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 19), he was 14% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −31% in 5 without vs 14 with). Effect +4%. Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team −47% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team −25% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −22%. CAR secondary: Akayleb Evans (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akayleb Evans: his team +24% in 15 games without him vs 11 with, allows 8.8 yards per target (unit starters: 8.5)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +11%. Watch: CAR secondary: Will Lee (Questionable, hamstring).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 20.1 |
| Matchup | +1.8 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 23.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 20.9 counts as 20.1. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CAR allows 9% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 19), he was 10% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team +13% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team −8% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. CAR defensive front: Bobby Okereke (Out, foot) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Bobby Okereke: his team −42% in 1 games without him vs 7 with, 7.3 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 27%, fair odds +273 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.24 |
| Matchup | +0.06 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.05 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.32 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 29% more than average, so his raw 0.31 counts as 0.24. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CAR allows 24% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 19), he was 73% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team −27% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team −20% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −18%. CAR defensive front: Bobby Okereke (Out, foot) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Bobby Okereke: his team −5% in 1 games without him vs 7 with, 7.3 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +7%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CLE | 265 | 51 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | PIT | 278 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NYG | 144 | 32 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 5 | MIN | 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | ATL | 286 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | LV | 255 | 36 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 2 | BAL | 252 | 23 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 | DET | 410 | 8 | 0 | 3 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.