RB · CLE
Quinshon Judkins
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 47.0 |
| Matchup | +0.5 |
| Weather | −0.1 |
| Coach / team | +2.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +4.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 52.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 47.4 counts as 47.0. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: HOU allows 1% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +43% in 5 without vs 17 with). Effect −2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −66% in 2 without vs 20 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 7% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 6% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +36% in 9 without vs 13 with). Effect −4%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. HOU defensive front: Azeez Al-Shaair (Out, groin), Danielle Hunter (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Azeez Al-Shaair: his team +16% in 2 games without him vs 25 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8); Danielle Hunter: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +11%. Watch: HOU defensive front: Will Anderson (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 15.2 |
| Matchup | −2.3 |
| Weather | +0.4 |
| Coach / team | −1.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 12.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 15.3 counts as 15.2. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: HOU allows 15% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +8% in 5 without vs 17 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +5% in 2 without vs 20 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 22% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Deshaun Watson 6.6 yards per attempt vs Shedeur Sanders 6.7, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −49% in 9 without vs 13 with). Effect +6%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −10% in 14 without vs 8 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 25%, fair odds +299 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.34 |
| Matchup | +0.02 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.06 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.39 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% less than average, so his raw 0.31 counts as 0.34. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: HOU allows 7% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +23% in 5 without vs 17 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 20 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 1% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 15% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +35% in 9 without vs 13 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. HOU defensive front: Azeez Al-Shaair (Out, groin), Danielle Hunter (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Azeez Al-Shaair: his team +75% in 2 games without him vs 25 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8); Danielle Hunter: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +18%. Watch: HOU defensive front: Will Anderson (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NO | 0 | 43 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | PIT | 0 | 25 | 24 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | TEN | 0 | 96 | 8 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NYJ | 0 | 44 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | PIT | 0 | 53 | 43 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CAR | 0 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | TB | 0 | 21 | 27 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | JAX | 0 | 33 | 17 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.