RB · KC
Emmett Johnson
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 8 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 13.6 |
| Matchup | +1.4 |
| Weather | −0.2 |
| Coach / team | +2.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 18.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% more than average, so his raw 14.7 counts as 13.6. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ATL allows 10% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 8 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +103% in 1 without vs 7 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 47% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 3% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 2 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 80% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −36% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 3 of his last 8 games). Effect −13%. ATL defensive front: Divine Deablo (Doubtful, forearm) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Divine Deablo: his team +71% in 6 games without him vs 20 with, 4.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.4)); already the case in 1 of his last 8 games). Effect +22%. Watch: Kenneth Walker III is listed Questionable, groin; ATL defensive front: Gervon Dexter (Questionable, illness).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 8 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 28.3 |
| Matchup | +0.2 |
| Weather | −0.0 |
| Coach / team | −1.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 23.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 16% more than average, so his raw 32.8 counts as 28.3. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ATL allows 1% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 8 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +45% in 1 without vs 7 with). Effect −0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 13% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 2 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 8 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −45% in 3 without vs 5 with). Effect +2%. Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −24% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 3 of his last 8 games). Effect −8%. ATL secondary: Jessie Bates III (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jessie Bates III: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 7.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.8)); already the case in 0 of his last 8 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 8 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 45%, fair odds +123 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.36 |
| Matchup | +0.08 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | −0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.45 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 0.38 counts as 0.36. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ATL allows 22% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 8 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 7 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 18% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 2 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 72% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −49% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 3 of his last 8 games). Effect −14%. ATL defensive front: Divine Deablo (Doubtful, forearm) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Divine Deablo: his team +33% in 6 games without him vs 20 with, 4.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.4)); already the case in 1 of his last 8 games). Effect +16%. Watch: Kenneth Walker III is listed Questionable, groin; ATL defensive front: Gervon Dexter (Questionable, illness).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NYJ | 0 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DEN | 0 | 15 | 128 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LAC | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | LV | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIA | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | IND | 0 | 15 | 20 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | DEN | 0 | 24 | 44 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.