RB · ARI
Jeremiyah Love
Not expected to play: on injured reserve
Next: Week 10, LA at ARI, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 6 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 44.8 |
| Matchup | −4.6 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +1.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 40.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 6 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% less than average, so his raw 42.3 counts as 44.8. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LA allows 10% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 27% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 6), he was 6% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (league-wide +3% in 763 games; already the case in 0 of his last 6 games). Effect +3%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −2% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 2 of his last 6 games). Effect −6%. LA defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 6 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 6 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 4.0 |
| Matchup | +1.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 6.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 6 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% more than average, so his raw 4.4 counts as 4.0. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LA allows 25% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 6% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 6), he was 94% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (quarterback gap: Jacoby Brissett 6.4 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; already the case in 0 of his last 6 games). Effect −1%. Top targets: Michael Wilson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Michael Wilson takes 26% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); already the case in 0 of his last 6 games). Effect +19%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −8% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 2 of his last 6 games). Effect −5%. LA secondary: Jaylen Watson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylen Watson: his team −15% in 2 games without him vs 7 with, allows 7.1 yards per target (unit starters: 6.8)); already the case in 3 of his last 6 games). Effect −3%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee); LA secondary: Kamren Curl (Questionable, toe), Trent McDuffie (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 6 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 16%, fair odds +538 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.29 |
| Matchup | −0.11 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.06 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.13 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 6 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% less than average, so his raw 0.25 counts as 0.29. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LA allows 38% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 72% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 6), he was 50% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett is not expected to play (no longer on the roster) (league-wide −17% in 763 games; already the case in 0 of his last 6 games). Effect −17%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −28% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 2 of his last 6 games). Effect −16%. LA defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 6 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | DAL | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DET | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NYG | 0 | 63 | -8 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | SF | 0 | 90 | 19 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | SEA | 0 | 29 | 16 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LAC | 0 | 41 | 9 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.