TE · NYJ
Kenyon Sadiq
Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 50 tight ends · last 9 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 23.2 |
| Matchup | +2.7 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −5.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 20.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% more than average, so his raw 25.7 counts as 23.2. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BUF allows 12% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 9 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +56% in 5 without vs 4 with). Effect −15%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 9 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −61% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 3 of his last 9 games). Effect −7%. Watch: Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Adonai Mitchell is listed Questionable, knee; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 9 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 7%, fair odds +1265 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.09 |
| Matchup | −0.04 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.05 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 38% more than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.09. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BUF allows 43% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 9 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −42% in 5 without vs 4 with). Effect +6%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 9 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −86% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 3 of his last 9 games). Effect −7%. Watch: Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Adonai Mitchell is listed Questionable, knee; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | KC | 0 | 0 | 49 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LV | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NE | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DET | 0 | 0 | 105 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | GB | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.