WR · TB
Ted Hurst III
Next: Week 11, TB at DET, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 113 wide receivers · last 8 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 16.5 |
| Matchup | +1.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.3 |
| Rest / bye | −0.2 |
| Game time | −0.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 17.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 15.9 counts as 16.5. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DET allows 7% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% above in 2 games. No games after a bye for this player yet. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 8 games (quarterback gap: Baker Mayfield 7.3 yards per attempt vs Jalon Daniels 5.8, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +79% in 2 without vs 6 with). Effect −1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 8 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 6 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 8 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DET secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 8 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 8 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 17%, fair odds +477 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.12 |
| Matchup | −0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.12 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 25% less than average, so his raw 0.09 counts as 0.12. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DET allows 9% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% below in 2 games. No games after a bye for this player yet. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 6 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 8 games (quarterback gap: Baker Mayfield 5.6 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Jalon Daniels 3.2, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 6 with). Effect +14%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 8 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 6 with). Effect +3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 8 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DET secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 8 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | GB | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIN | 0 | 0 | 40 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.