RB · SF
Kaelon Black
Next: Week 10, SF at DAL, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 8 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 38.9 |
| Matchup | +5.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −1.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −5.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 38.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 41.8 counts as 38.9. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DAL allows 13% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 31% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: DAL defensive front: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Donovan Ezeiruaku: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.5)); already the case in 2 of his last 8 games). Effect +2%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 8 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.0 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4092% more than average, so his raw 0.1 counts as 0.0. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DAL allows 8% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Mike Evans (Out, achilles) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Mike Evans takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 6 with; already the case in 2 of his last 8 games). Effect −4%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 8 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 20%, fair odds +396 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.14 |
| Matchup | +0.04 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.17 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 22% more than average, so his raw 0.18 counts as 0.14. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DAL allows 30% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: DAL defensive front: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Donovan Ezeiruaku: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.5)); already the case in 2 of his last 8 games). Effect +2%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | LV | 0 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | ATL | 0 | 63 | -4 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | WAS | 0 | 34 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | SEA | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DEN | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ARI | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | MIA | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LA | 0 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.