WR · NO
Bryce Lance
Next: Week 10, CAR at NO, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 113 wide receivers · last 8 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 7.5 |
| Matchup | −0.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 8.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 7.6 counts as 7.5. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CAR allows 0% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 0% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 20% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team −9% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team +11% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 3 of his last 8 games). Effect +2%. CAR secondary: Akayleb Evans (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akayleb Evans: his team +4% in 15 games without him vs 11 with, allows 8.8 yards per target (unit starters: 8.5)); already the case in 3 of his last 8 games). Effect +2%. Watch: CAR secondary: Will Lee (Questionable, hamstring).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 8 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 15%, fair odds +555 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.13 |
| Matchup | −0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.12 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 15% more than average, so his raw 0.15 counts as 0.13. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CAR allows 9% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 60% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team −27% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team −20% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 3 of his last 8 games). Effect −18%. CAR secondary: Akayleb Evans (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akayleb Evans: his team +14% in 15 games without him vs 11 with, allows 8.8 yards per target (unit starters: 8.5)); already the case in 3 of his last 8 games). Effect +7%. Watch: CAR secondary: Will Lee (Questionable, hamstring).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | LV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | DET | 0 | 0 | 42 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.