RB · IND
Seth McGowan
Next: Week 10, MIA at IND, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 9 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 28.5 |
| Matchup | +1.9 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +2.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +3.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 37.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 28.7 counts as 28.5. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIA allows 6% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 23% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 3% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 8% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +53% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −9% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 2 of his last 9 games). Effect +10%. MIA defensive front: Zach Sieler (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zach Sieler: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.8)); already the case in 1 of his last 9 games). Effect +2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 9 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.5 |
| Matchup | +0.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% more than average, so his raw 0.6 counts as 0.5. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIA allows 8% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 3% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 76% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Keenan Allen (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Keenan Allen takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); already the case in 3 of his last 9 games). Effect +11%. Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +15% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −27% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 2 of his last 9 games). Effect −1%. MIA secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 9 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 9 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 21%, fair odds +385 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.15 |
| Matchup | +0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.18 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 30% more than average, so his raw 0.20 counts as 0.15. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIA allows 15% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 41% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 29% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +7% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −45% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 2 of his last 9 games). Effect −6%. MIA defensive front: Zach Sieler (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zach Sieler: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.8)); already the case in 1 of his last 9 games). Effect +2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DAL | 0 | 45 | -3 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | JAX | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | MIN | 0 | 46 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TEN | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | PIT | 0 | 16 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | WAS | 0 | 31 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | HOU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.