TE · NE
Eli Raridon
Next: Week 12, NE at LAC, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 8 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 33.1 |
| Matchup | −1.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.2 |
| Rest / bye | −1.2 |
| Game time | +0.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −6.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 24.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% less than average, so his raw 31.0 counts as 33.1. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 4% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 5% below in 5 games. No games after a bye for this player yet. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 2 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 6% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 8 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +150% in 7 without vs 1 with). Effect −24%. Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team +11% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 5 of his last 8 games). Effect +3%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 8 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 45 tight ends · last 8 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 21%, fair odds +367 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.28 |
| Matchup | −0.12 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | −0.01 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.18 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 24% less than average, so his raw 0.22 counts as 0.28. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 43% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 18% below in 5 games. No games after a bye for this player yet. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 2 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 300% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 8 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −70% in 7 without vs 1 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team +33% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 5 of his last 8 games). Effect +9%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 8 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | GB | 0 | 0 | 52 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 56 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | LV | 0 | 0 | 57 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.