WR · TEN
Carnell Tate
Not expected to play: Out, shoulder
Next: Week 10, JAX at TEN, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 7 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 60.5 |
| Matchup | +6.5 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.5 |
| Rest / bye | −5.2 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −8.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 53.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 7 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 61.5 counts as 60.5. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 11% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 17% below in 4 games. No games after a bye for this player yet. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 7), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 7 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +25% in 1 without vs 6 with). Effect −2%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 3 of his last 7 games). Effect −0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 1 of his last 7 games). Effect −10%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 7 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 18%, fair odds +459 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.20 |
| Matchup | −0.05 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.14 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 7 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 0.19 counts as 0.20. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 25% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 8% above in 4 games. No games after a bye for this player yet. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 7), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 7 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games). Effect −1%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 3 of his last 7 games). Effect −1%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −21% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 1 of his last 7 games). Effect −10%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 7 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 69 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | IND | 0 | 0 | 70 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 145 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 58 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.