WR · PIT
Germie Bernard
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 7 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 42.2 |
| Matchup | −1.8 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +1.1 |
| Rest / bye | −1.2 |
| Game time | −1.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +4.7 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 43.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 7 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 42.0 counts as 42.2. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CIN allows 4% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 17% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. No games after a bye for this player yet. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 1 game in that window (of his last 7), he was 73% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Roman Wilson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Roman Wilson takes 15% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +42% in 3 without vs 4 with; already the case in 3 of his last 7 games). Effect +11%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 7 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 7 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 25%, fair odds +294 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.17 |
| Matchup | +0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.21 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 7 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 0.16 counts as 0.17. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CIN allows 7% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 50% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. No games after a bye for this player yet. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 1 game in that window (of his last 7), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Roman Wilson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Roman Wilson takes 15% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); already the case in 3 of his last 7 games). Effect +4%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 7 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NO | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TB | 0 | 0 | 87 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | IND | 0 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NE | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.