WR · MIA
Caleb Douglas
Next: Week 10, MIA at IND, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 5 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 57.7 |
| Matchup | −0.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +2.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −11.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 51.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 5 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 58.7 counts as 57.7. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: IND allows 0% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 19% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 2 games in that window (of his last 5), he was 23% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Malik Willis is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Malik Willis 7.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; already the case in 0 of his last 5 games). Effect −18%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team −10% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 1 of his last 5 games). Effect −1%. IND secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 5 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 5 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 19%, fair odds +438 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.36 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.09 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.28 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 5 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 0.39 counts as 0.36. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: IND allows 8% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 2 games in that window (of his last 5), he was 150% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Malik Willis is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Malik Willis 4.3 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; already the case in 0 of his last 5 games). Effect −24%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team +0% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 1 of his last 5 games). Effect −1%. IND secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 5 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DET | 0 | 0 | 70 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | NE | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 70 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | SF | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LV | 0 | 0 | 94 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.