WR · MIA
Chris Bell
Not expected to play: Doubtful, knee
Next: Week 10, MIA at IND, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 113 wide receivers · last 8 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 17.7 |
| Matchup | −0.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | −4.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 15.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 16.9 counts as 17.7. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: IND allows 0% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 19% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 8), he was 34% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Malik Willis is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Malik Willis 7.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; already the case in 0 of his last 8 games). Effect −18%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 8 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +62% in 3 without vs 5 with). Effect −11%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team −10% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 1 of his last 8 games). Effect −1%. IND secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 8 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 8 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 6%, fair odds +1700 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.00 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.00 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 8 games. His schedule was about average. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: IND allows 8% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Slowik's offense vs Anarumo's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. No games in that window among his last 8, so no adjustment.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Malik Willis is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Malik Willis 4.3 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; already the case in 0 of his last 8 games). Effect −24%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 8 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games). Effect −4%. Offensive line: Aaron Brewer (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Aaron Brewer: his team +0% in 1 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 1 of his last 8 games). Effect −1%. IND secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 8 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | NE | 0 | -2 | 31 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CIN | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | KC | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LV | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.