WR · CLE
KC Concepcion
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 9 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 52.7 |
| Matchup | +6.8 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −7.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 49.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 56.1 counts as 52.7. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: HOU allows 13% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 22% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 9 games (quarterback gap: Deshaun Watson 6.6 yards per attempt vs Shedeur Sanders 6.7, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +101% in 1 without vs 8 with). Effect −2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 9 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 9 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 9 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 25%, fair odds +300 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.20 |
| Matchup | +0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.22 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 9 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 0.20 counts as 0.20. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: HOU allows 7% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 1% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 9), he was 13% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 9 games (quarterback gap: Deshaun Watson 3.1 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Shedeur Sanders 3.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 9 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 9 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NO | 0 | 3 | 85 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | TEN | 0 | 23 | 129 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | BAL | 0 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 64 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | TB | 0 | -6 | 28 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.