2026 season · Week 10

Best bets of the week

Official model. Ranked by edge: expected profit per $100 at the listed price, from the model's own chances. Games that have kicked off are left out.

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Prices are nflverse consensus lines, refreshed hourly; check your sportsbook's current price. Player props join this list once sportsbook prop lines are connected.

Fair oddsModel
LA at ARI Total Over 38.5 −108 73% −265 +$39.9 47.0 points
PIT at CIN Spread CIN −3.5 −110 58% −136 +$10.0 CIN −5.8
SF at DAL Moneyline DAL to win +180 38% push 3% +156 +$9.1 SF −3.5
SF at DAL Total Under 55.5 −102 53% −114 +$5.7 54.7 points
PIT at CIN Moneyline CIN to win −192 66% push 3% −213 +$3.4 CIN −5.8
PIT at CIN Total Under 49.5 −115 55% −123 +$3.0 48.1 points
SF at DAL Spread DAL +4.5 −112 54% −116 +$1.6 SF −3.5
SEA at LV Moneyline LV to win +240 29% push 3% +235 +$1.5 SEA −6.4
LAC at BAL Total Under 38.5 −105 51% −106 +$0.3 38.4 points
SEA at LV Total Over 40.5 −108 52% −109 +$0.3 41.9 points
LA at ARI Spread LA −9.5 −115 53% −113 −$0.9 LA −10.5
LAC at BAL Spread BAL −4.5 −112 52% −108 −$1.6 BAL −5.0
LAC at BAL Moneyline LAC to win +185 34% push 2% +190 −$1.7 BAL −5.0
SEA at LV Spread LV +6.5 −110 51% −104 −$2.6 SEA −6.4
LA at ARI Moneyline LA to win −500 79% push 2% −421 −$3.0 LA −10.5
LAC at BAL Moneyline BAL to win −225 64% push 2% −190 −$5.2 BAL −5.0
SEA at LV Moneyline SEA to win −298 68% push 3% −235 −$6.1 SEA −6.4
SEA at LV Spread SEA −6.5 −110 49% +104 −$6.5 SEA −6.4
LAC at BAL Spread LAC +4.5 −108 48% +108 −$7.6 BAL −5.0
LA at ARI Moneyline ARI to win +380 19% push 2% +421 −$7.7 LA −10.5
LA at ARI Spread ARI +9.5 −105 47% +113 −$8.3 LA −10.5
LAC at BAL Total Over 38.5 −115 49% +106 −$9.1 38.4 points
SEA at LV Total Under 40.5 −112 48% +109 −$9.3 41.9 points
SF at DAL Moneyline SF to win −218 59% push 3% −156 −$10.8 SF −3.5
SF at DAL Spread SF −4.5 −108 46% +116 −$10.8 SF −3.5
PIT at CIN Total Over 49.5 −105 45% +123 −$12.3 48.1 points
SF at DAL Total Over 55.5 −118 47% +114 −$13.8 54.7 points
PIT at CIN Moneyline PIT to win +160 31% push 3% +213 −$16.4 CIN −5.8
PIT at CIN Spread PIT +3.5 −110 42% +136 −$19.1 CIN −5.8
LA at ARI Total Under 38.5 −112 27% +265 −$48.2 47.0 points

Track record

The model replayed on 2090 games since 2019, each using only earlier games.

Average miss, pointsModelClosing lineModel is
Margin10.49.8Further
Total11.210.4Further
When the model differed from the line by 2+ pointsIts side won
Spreads653–629–29, 51%Not clearly above or below the 52.4% needed at −110
Totals690–705–13, 49%Clearly below the 52.4% needed at −110
Why
  • Average miss: how far, on average, the final margin and total landed from the model and from the sportsbooks' closing line (2090 games with a line).
  • Won–lost–pushed: games where the model and the closing line disagreed by at least 2 points, graded against the closing line.
  • At standard −110 prices a bettor needs to win 52.4% to break even. A record is called clearly above or below only when chance alone would rarely (5%) explain the gap. Closing lines are hard to beat.

How to read this

  • Model chance: how often the bet won when the model's past misses (2090 real games since 2019) are laid around this week's projection.
  • Fair odds: the price at which the bet breaks even by the model's chance.
  • Edge: expected profit per $100 at the listed price. Positive means the price pays more than the model thinks is fair.
  • The model's track record against closing lines is on the left. A positive edge is the model's opinion, not a promise.