WAS statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 20.7 points as played, 22.6 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 9 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
WAS matchup: NYG's defense allowed 5% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
WAS home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2310 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
WAS rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
WAS quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
WAS weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
WAS coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
NYG statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 23.6 points as played, 24.2 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 8 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
NYG matchup: WAS's defense allowed 3% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
NYG home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2310 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
NYG rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
NYG quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
NYG weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
NYG coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
NE statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 24.6 points as played, 25.3 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
NE matchup: DET's defense allowed 4% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
NE home field: Neutral site: no home field.
NE rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
NE quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
NE weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
NE coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
DET statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 25.5 points as played, 25.6 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
DET matchup: NE's defense allowed 4% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
DET home field: Neutral site: no home field.
DET rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
DET quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
DET weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
DET coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
BUF statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 30.5 points as played, 32.8 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 1 game started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
BUF matchup: NYJ's defense allowed 19% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
BUF home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
BUF rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
BUF quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
BUF weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
BUF coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
NYJ statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 19.0 points as played, 18.8 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 7 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
NYJ matchup: BUF's defense allowed 6% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
NYJ home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
NYJ rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
NYJ quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
NYJ weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
NYJ coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
CAR statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 22.4 points as played, 23.0 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
CAR matchup: NO's defense allowed 4% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
CAR home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
CAR rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
CAR quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
CAR weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
CAR coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
NO statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 22.2 points as played, 22.6 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
NO matchup: CAR's defense allowed 12% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
NO home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
NO rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
NO quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
NO weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
NO coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
HOU statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 27.8 points as played, 28.3 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
HOU matchup: CLE's defense allowed 5% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
HOU home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
HOU rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
HOU quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
HOU weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
HOU coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
CLE statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 17.5 points as played, 19.2 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 8 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
CLE matchup: HOU's defense allowed 0% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
CLE home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
CLE rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
CLE quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
CLE weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
CLE coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
JAX statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 30.5 points as played, 31.1 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
JAX matchup: TEN's defense allowed 15% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
JAX home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
JAX rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
JAX quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
JAX weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
JAX coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
TEN statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 20.4 points as played, 21.2 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
TEN matchup: JAX's defense allowed 23% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
TEN home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
TEN rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, teams score 1% less than their season average after a bye (306 games since 2018).
TEN quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
TEN weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
TEN coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
KC statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 22.5 points as played, 22.3 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 3 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
KC matchup: ATL's defense allowed 6% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
KC home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
KC rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
KC quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
KC weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
KC coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
ATL statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 20.4 points as played, 21.1 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 9 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
ATL matchup: KC's defense allowed 14% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
ATL home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
ATL rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
ATL quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
ATL weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
ATL coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
MIA statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 16.9 points as played, 17.6 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 8 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
MIA matchup: IND's defense allowed 17% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
MIA home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
MIA rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
MIA quarterback: Malik Willis not expected to play (on injured reserve); a backup expected to start. League-wide, teams score 14% less when a backup starts (753 games since 2018); scaled by this team's own starter-to-backup gap to 20% less.
MIA weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
MIA coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
IND statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 19.3 points as played, 20.7 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 4 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
IND matchup: MIA's defense allowed 5% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
IND home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
IND rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
IND quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
IND weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
IND coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
MIN statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 16.8 points as played, 16.0 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 10 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
MIN matchup: GB's defense allowed 4% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
MIN home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
MIN rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
MIN quarterback: Kyler Murray not expected to play (Out, hamstring); Carson Wentz expected to start. League-wide, teams score 14% less when a backup starts (753 games since 2018); scaled by this team's own starter-to-backup gap to 5% less.
MIN weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
MIN coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
GB statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 25.5 points as played, 26.2 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 2 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
GB matchup: MIN's defense allowed 25% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
GB home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
GB rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
GB quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
GB weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
GB coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
LA statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 25.3 points as played, 25.0 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
LA matchup: ARI's defense allowed 18% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
LA home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
LA rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
LA quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
LA weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
LA coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
ARI statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 18.7 points as played, 19.2 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 1 game started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
ARI matchup: LA's defense allowed 8% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
ARI home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
ARI rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
ARI quarterback: Jacoby Brissett not expected to play (no longer on the team); a backup expected to start. League-wide, teams score 14% less when a backup starts (753 games since 2018); scaled by this team's own starter-to-backup gap to 1% less.
ARI weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
ARI coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
SEA statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 22.4 points as played, 24.5 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 6 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
SEA matchup: LV's defense allowed 27% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
SEA home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
SEA rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
SEA quarterback: Sam Darnold not expected to play (Out, ribs); Drew Lock expected to start. League-wide, teams score 14% less when a backup starts (753 games since 2018); scaled by this team's own starter-to-backup gap to 19% less.
SEA weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
SEA coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
LV statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 23.6 points as played, 24.4 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 7 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
LV matchup: SEA's defense allowed 18% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
LV home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
LV rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
LV quarterback: Kirk Cousins not expected to play (no longer on the team); Fernando Mendoza expected to start. League-wide, teams score 14% less when a backup starts (753 games since 2018); scaled by this team's own starter-to-backup gap to 15% less.
LV weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
LV coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
SF statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 27.9 points as played, 26.5 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
SF matchup: DAL's defense allowed 13% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
SF home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
SF rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
SF quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
SF weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
SF coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
DAL statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 26.8 points as played, 25.9 restated at a neutral site against an average defense. League average 22.8 points per team.
DAL matchup: SF's defense allowed 4% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
DAL home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
DAL rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
DAL quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
DAL weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
DAL coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
PIT statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 22.3 points as played, 22.6 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 1 game started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
PIT matchup: CIN's defense allowed 2% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
PIT home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
PIT rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, teams score 1% less than their season average after a bye (306 games since 2018).
PIT quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
PIT weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
PIT coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
CIN statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 30.5 points as played, 31.1 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 2 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
CIN matchup: PIT's defense allowed 16% less points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
CIN home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
CIN rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
CIN quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
CIN weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
CIN coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
LAC statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 15.0 points as played, 15.6 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 1 game started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
LAC matchup: BAL's defense allowed 13% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
LAC home field: Away: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (−0.8).
LAC rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
LAC quarterback: Main quarterback expected to play.
LAC weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
LAC coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
BAL statistics: Last 16 games, newer games counting more: 19.0 points as played, 19.9 restated at a neutral site against an average defense, with 5 games started by a backup quarterback restated as if the usual starter played. League average 22.8 points per team.
BAL matchup: LAC's defense allowed 12% more points than the league average over its last 16 games (weighted for sample size).
BAL home field: Home: league-wide, home teams have won by 1.7 points on average (2311 games since 2018); half of that to each side (+0.8).
BAL rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
BAL quarterback: Tyler Huntley not expected to play (on injured reserve); a backup expected to start. League-wide, teams score 14% less when a backup starts (753 games since 2018); scaled by this team's own starter-to-backup gap to 6% less.
BAL weather: Not part of the game model yet: no forecast source. Counted as 0.
BAL coach / team: Not part of the game model yet: play-caller history is used for player bets only. Counted as 0.
Track record
The model replayed on 2090 games since 2019, each using only earlier games.
Average miss, points
Model
Closing line
Model is
Margin
10.4
9.8
Further
Total
11.2
10.4
Further
When the model differed from the line by 2+ points
Its side won
Spreads
653–629–29, 51%
Not clearly above or below the 52.4% needed at −110
Totals
690–705–13, 49%
Clearly below the 52.4% needed at −110
Why
Average miss: how far, on average, the final margin and total landed from the model and from the sportsbooks' closing line (2090 games with a line).
Won–lost–pushed: games where the model and the closing line disagreed by at least 2 points, graded against the closing line.
At standard −110 prices a bettor needs to win 52.4% to break even. A record is called clearly above or below only when chance alone would rarely (5%) explain the gap. Closing lines are hard to beat.